Carmignac P. Credit: Letter from the Fund Managers
Carmignac Portfolio Credit was up +2.27% (for the EUR A share) during the second quarter of 2024 versus 0.48% for the reference indicator, outperforming by 1.80%. Since the beginning of the year, the EUR A share is up 4.84% versus 1.18% for the reference indicator, outperforming by 3.66%.
Review of Q2 2024 performance
Credit markets were stable during the quarter, despite a minor bout of volatility triggered by dissolution of the French National Assembly. Primary markets were very active, thanks to refinancings as well as new issuers coming to the market for the first time – sometimes offering very interesting opportunities. All our performance drivers contributed to the performance of the fund, with an important part of the outperformance driven by the recovery of our two largest special situations.
As we already discussed last quarter, the current environment is very conducive for our investment approach. Credit markets are back to rich valuations yet risk-free rates offer a healthy cushion on the downside, through extra yield and the potential for cuts in a recession-led market dislocation. With market yields in low to mid-single digit territory for investment grade and mid to high -single digit for high yield (in euro as well as in dollar), the appetite of the benchmarked credit investor community for complex situations is relatively low. As a result, the complexity premia which are our bread and butter stand at healthy levels.
For example, in May we invested in a B/BB rated bond of an office focused real estate company with a yield in the low teens. We did some extended diligence to make sure assets were of high quality, well in demand in the relevant markets and valued appropriately. The loan-to-value is reasonable and leaves our bond very well covered, even in catastrophic scenarios. Yet, because European credit investors have too much exposure to weaker real estate credits, included in shaky office markets, there was very little appetite to deploy incremental capital in the space, even for a very attractive remuneration. In the current market regime, we often come across similar situations across our investment universe and we have managed to build a diversified and liquid portfolio for Carmignac Portfolio Credit, yielding far in excess, in our view, of its fundamental cost of risk.
Outlook
It is becoming clearer and clearer that many companies with weak business models that ran ever increasing leverage during the decade prior to 2022, at a cost suppressed by financial repression, are now getting closer to a refinancing wall that they will not be able to climb. We believe the special situations space, which has contributed nicely to the fund’s performance in the past despite a reduced opportunity set, is about to offer very interesting asymmetric opportunities – and the potential for sharp outperformance for investors with the right skillset and experience.
In summary, we are very excited for the potential for performance and outperformance going forward and would be disappointed if Carmignac Portfolio Credit does not offer a mid-to-high single digit return in the next two to three years. End of June the portfolio is yielding 7.6% for a BB+ average rating, and accounting for our 20%+ hedging position through CDX HY and Xover, the yield is above 7% for an average BBB- rating. In addition, we have several special situations in the book where we see strong upside potential. Given the depth of the opportunity set across our investment universe, we are keeping the fund very diversified, with more than 250 positions and 150 issuers, and hence very liquid.
Sources: Carmignac, 30/06/2024. Performance of the A EUR acc share class ISIN code: LU1623762843. 1Reference indicator: 75% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Corporate Index, 25% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Index. 231/07/2017.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions
Carmignac Portfolio Credit
Access the entire credit spectrum for maximum flexibilityDiscover the fund pageCarmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc
- Recommended minimum investment horizon
- 3 years
- Risk indicator*
- 2/7
- SFDR - Fund Classification**
- Article 6
*Risk Scale from the KID (Key Information Document). Risk 1 does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. **The Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) 2019/2088 is a European regulation that requires asset managers to classify their funds as either 'Article 8' funds, which promote environmental and social characteristics, 'Article 9' funds, which make sustainable investments with measurable objectives, or 'Article 6' funds, which do not necessarily have a sustainability objective. For more information please refer to https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2019/2088/oj.
Main risks of the fund
Fees
- Entry costs
- 2,00% of the amount you pay in when entering this investment. This is the most you will be charged. Carmignac Gestion doesn't charge any entry fee. The person selling you the product will inform you of the actual charge.
- Exit costs
- We do not charge an exit fee for this product.
- Management fees and other administrative or operating costs
- 1,20% of the value of your investment per year. This estimate is based on actual costs over the past year.
- Performance fees
- 20,00% when the share class overperforms the Reference indicator during the performance period. It will be payable also in case the share class has overperformed the reference indicator but had a negative performance. Underperformance is clawed back for 5 years. The actual amount will vary depending on how well your investment performs. The aggregated cost estimation above includes the average over the last 5 years, or since the product creation if it is less than 5 years.
- Transaction Cost
- 0,85% of the value of your investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the investments underlying the product. The actual amount varies depending on the quantity we buy and sell.
Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | 1.8 | 1.7 | 20.9 | 10.4 | 3.0 | -13.0 | 10.6 |
| Reference Indicator | 1.1 | -1.7 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.1 | -13.3 | 9.0 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | + 1.3 % | + 3.4 % | + 5.4 % |
| Reference Indicator | - 0.0 % | + 0.6 % | + 1.3 % |
Source: Carmignac at 29 Nov 2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor).
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Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/KIID, prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions. This document is intended for professional clients.
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In the United Kingdom: the Funds’ respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.co.uk, or upon request to the Management Company, or for the French Funds, at the offices of the Facilities Agent at BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES SERVICES, operating through its branch in London: 55 Moorgate, London EC2R. This document was prepared by Carmignac Gestion, Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg or Carmignac UK Ltd. FP Carmignac ICVC (the “Company”) is an Investment Company with variable capital incorporated in England and Wales under registered number 839620 and is authorised by the FCA with effect from 4 April 2019 and launched on 15 May 2019. FundRock Partners Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director (the “ACD”) of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the FCA. Registered Office: Hamilton Centre, Rodney Way, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 3BY, UK; Registered in England and Wales with number 4162989. Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA has been appointed as the Investment Manager and distributor in respect of the Company. Carmignac UK Ltd (Registered in England and Wales with number 14162894) has been appointed as a sub-Investment Manager of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN:984288.
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